Delay Predictor

Overview

The Delay Predictor estimates how likely your flight is to be delayed before the airline tells you anything. It uses a weighted scoring model that combines multiple risk factors into a single delay probability — so you can plan accordingly.

How the Model Works

Four factors feed into the delay score, each weighted by historical predictive power:

• Historical patterns — How often this specific flight number has been delayed over the past 90 days. A flight that's late 40% of the time carries more risk than one that's late 5% of the time.
• Weather conditions — Current and forecasted weather at both origin and destination airports. Thunderstorms, low visibility, wind shear, and winter weather all increase the score.
• Airport congestion — Real-time traffic levels at the airport. High departure volume, ground stops, and traffic management programs raise delay risk.
• Turnaround risk — Whether the inbound aircraft is already delayed. If your plane is coming from a city with weather problems, your flight is at risk even if your airport is clear.

Reading the Score

The predictor shows a risk level: Low (under 20%), Moderate (20-50%), or High (above 50%). You'll also see which factor is contributing most, so you understand why the prediction is what it is.

Key Details

• Navigator gets basic scoring. Executive and Black get the full model with historical breakdowns.
• Predictions update continuously as departure approaches.

Tips

1. Check the predictor the morning of your flight — that's when weather and congestion data become most accurate.
2. High turnaround risk? Head to the airport anyway, but have a backup plan ready.